Could a Mars city become self-sustaining in 40–100 years?
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Attributed statement
Paraphrase of Musk's 27 September 2016 presentation, published in New Space in 2017: reaching a self-sustaining civilization on Mars could take 40–100 years from the first ship going to Mars.
Source / statement date: · Elon Musk, 2016 IAC presentation; 2017 New Space paper, p. 50 (PDF mirror)
Editorial context
Editorial context: this historical estimate starts with the first ship going to Mars in the proposed settlement effort, not with the speech, this poll or earlier robotic missions. Musk assumed a growing fleet, repeated launch opportunities and roughly a million residents. Transport capacity alone would not establish self-sufficiency: food, energy, manufacturing and long-term health also matter. This is a proposed pathway, not a verified schedule or a report of current capability. Judge the timescale, not a specific arrival year. Results reflect reader opinion, not a scientific finding.
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